Common Sense on Social Security


Sponsor of the Social Security Solvency Simulator


An Objective, Nonpartisan Resource
on Social Security Reform

Our work is guided by three principles:   (1) Facts are more important than ideology;   (2) The public deserves access to the facts;   (3) Provide simulation tools so people can make sense of the issues.

Note: This is archival material. It was current in 2004. As the Social Security solvency problem remains unsolved, this website's analytic framework remains relevant, but the website has not been updated for some time.
 

 


Sensibly-Asked Questions (SAQ's) on Social Security Reform

This section could be called "FAQ's on Social Security Reform," but we like Sensibly-Asked Questions better. Here we address the following SAQ's: How does Social Security work? Is there really a financing problem? What's the reasonable way to go about fixing it? Why is the debate so polarized? What can I do to help?

Briefing Book on Social Security Solvency

How to critique the Republican approach - the unfounded optimism of the GOP, and how its reform plan shrivels when analyzed realistically. How to critique the Democratic approach - the four evasions that make up the sum of the Democratic reform approach. A responsible Republican strategy. A responsible Democratic strategy. If the economy grows faster than predicted - its potential effects on both strategies. An all-sided analysis based on Simcivic's simulation modeling tool.

Do Members of Congress Pay Into Social Security?

Perhaps you've read the e-mail message: "Social Security could be very good if only one small change were made. And that change would be to jerk the Golden Fleece Retirement Plan from under the Senators and Congressmen. Put them into the Social Security plan with the rest of us and then watch how fast they would fix it." Has the author of this email gotten the facts straight? Do Members of Congress receive Social Security or not?


Social Security Solvency Simulator - Early Release Version

Click on the link above to use the Internet's only fully-featured Social Security Solvency Simulator. Our simulation tool allows you to test all the key strategic options - cutting benefits, raising the payroll tax, allowing the Trust Fund to invest in stocks and corporate bonds, creating Personal Retirement Accounts (PRA's), a new injection of capital, ongoing federal subsidies, borrowing - and see their impact.

Has lasting solvency been achieved? Have scheduled benefits been cut? Will benefits be payable as scheduled? Has an overly aggressive PRA program swallowed the stock market alive? The Simulator's charts show you the likely results. NOTE: The Simulator was written in Java almost ten years ago. It has not been upgraded for many years, and may not function properly in browsers with newer versions of Java.


Three Pioneering Articles on Social Security Reform
(plus an Excel-based solvency forecasting model)

Social Security Reform: Breaking the Stalemate

Social Security reform faces a difficult dilemma. Leave the program unfunded, and face the inevitability of deep benefit cuts in the future? Turn Social Security into a funded retirement program using personal accounts, and bear an up-front conversion cost that exceeds $5 trillion? Or use a stock-rich Trust Fund as the investment vehicle, and watch Social Security soak up nearly a quarter of the stock market?

It's no wonder Congress and the nation are stalemated on how best to fix the program. But there is a way out. "Breaking the Stalemate" offers a centrist strategy for ensuring solvency, protecting benefits, and holding the line on the payroll tax.


Section 1. Three Critical Themes
Section 2. The Quarter Century From Hell
Section 3. Closing the Gap: Six Options
Section 4. Narrowing the Choices
Section 5. The True Meaning of Long-Term Solvency
Section 6. Removing the Stock Market's Rose-Colored Glasses
Section 7. The Conservative Morality Play
Section 8. The Liberal Morality Play
Section 9. Evaluating the Two Arguments
Section 10. Combining the Best of Both
Section 11. A Low Risk Trust Fund Strategy
Section 12. A Low Risk PRA Strategy
Section 13. Are Any of the Strategies Affordable?
Section 14. A Multi-Stakeholder Rating Test
Section 15. One Program, One Decision




Are Seven Percent Returns Realistic? (2005 Revision)

Many argue that real returns to stock investors have averaged seven percent in the past and will continue to do so in the future. The key linkages that drive stock market returns suggest otherwise. Fresh analysis, solid research, significant graphs.

Are Seven Percent Returns Realistic? (1999 Original)



The Size/Return Paradox

Reformers need to take a hard look at the Size/Return Paradox. An overpriced stock market can soak up more investment from Social Security, but its long-run returns are certain to be somewhat lower. An underpriced stock market will have much higher returns, but it won't be able to absorb as much Social Security investment.



Our Solvency Forecasting Spreadsheet Model

Anyone interested in learning more about Social Security reform can test a wide range of options by using our Solvency Forecasting Spreadsheet Model. This page explains the Model's Input-Output Section. By experimenting, maybe you'll find the best possible solution. You can obtain a copy for yourself by emailing us at info@simcivic.org 

(Our Excel spreadsheet is not nearly as advanced as our Solvency Simulator, but it does have two advantages. You can see all the calculations. And solution scenarios can be saved electronically.)


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Common Sense on Social Security
Questions?  Reactions?  Feedback?
You can reach us at  info@simcivic.org

The analytic work begun on this website has expanded.

Visits and comments welcome at www.IntegrityAtScaleBlog.com.



For more information on Social Security, the following web sites are suggested

The Concord Coalition

The Social Security Administration
 
 

Page Version 1.5
Revision Date September 27, 2012
Oh, by the way . . . In Our Midst by Martha Johnson